What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power? - Page 12

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Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
On Mon, 16 Jul 2012 17:38:32 +0800, the following appeared

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Apparently Graham thinks(?) that there's more energy in 98
octane fuel. Graham thinks(?) a lot of things that conflict
with reality.
--

Bob C.

"Evidence confirming an observation is
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Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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**Now, that is true. Do you imagine that it will always be the case?

In 1908, the average US automobile cost US$3,000.00. In 1909, Henry Ford
introduced mass production techniques to the US auto industry and lower
the price to $850.00. Further refinements and economies of scale allowed
Ford to reduce the price of the Model T to $550.00.

Right now, electric automobiles represent a miniscule proportion of
production. Witness the Telsa Roadster. It's performance approximates
that of a cheap(?) Ferrari. It is priced similarly. It is built in
similar numbers. It is reasonable to accume that, when EVs are built in
huge numbers, that costs will fall.

What do you think people will be driving when fuel hits 5 Bucks a Litre?

--
Trevor Wilson www.rageaudio.com.au



Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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Australian fuel prices have not gone up that much over the years
compared to the rest of the world. In 1998 petrol was about 85c per
litre, I moved to the US that year and was paying 90c/US gall. Now, even
here 500Km from Sydney we are paying $1.40/litre less than double,
meanwhile the yanks are now paying $3/US gall more than 3 times the
price. That's still significantly cheaper than here, but the
differential is closing.



Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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**Perhaps I should ask:

When do you think petrol will hit 5 Bucks a Litre?

--
Trevor Wilson www.rageaudio.com.au



Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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Over the last 12 years it has gone up an average of 6% per year $5/litre
is roughly 260% more than the current price so work it out.

A Golf Blue Motion which is reckoned to do less than 4l/100Km will cost
you about $29K. At $5/litre even that means that you would have to do
155000Km before you're up to the basic price for the Volt, and that
isn't counting the cost of the solar panels.


Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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**The problem is that there will not be a linear relationship of petrol
price rises over time. There are many factors in play. Petrol may
languish at present levels for some years. Or it could go through the
roof next month. I certainly cannot predict it.

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**People are funny (in a weird way). When petrol cracked the $1.00/Litre
mark, the sales of large 4WDs plummetted and the sales of economical
cars boomed. Recently, thanks in part to the strength of the AUssie
Dollar, petrol prices have been depressed. 4WD sales are booming again.
It will not always be like this. Eventually, petrol prices will trend up
and people will start looking for more economical vehicles. The choice
may not be logical. IOW: A purchaser may opt for a (say) Holden Volt,
not because it will be a viable economical alternative, but because it
uses less fuel. That is human nature.

With specific reference to the Blue Motion, I should point out a few issues:

* It is available in a manual transmission only. That is not likely to
concern you or me, but people like my 84 year old mother would be bothered.
* The claimed fuel consumption figures for the Golf are not stop-start
motoring ones. In this area, electric and hybrids may offer superior
results. For long distances, at constant speeds, a straight Diesel may
be the best choice. This is not necessarily the case for Sydney traffic,
nor for those who drop the kids off to school each day. IC engines
(particularly Deisels) do not operate at optimum efficiency until the
engine is warm. Electric motors operate at maximum efficiency when cool.

BTW: I do not hold the Volt up as the ultimate solution to an
alternative powered vehicle. It is simply ONE possible solution. As I
have stated before, a small Deisel/electric vehicle makes more sense
IMO. VW's experience in this area would suggest an impressive result.



--
Trevor Wilson www.rageaudio.com.au



Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?

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You can now buy 4WD from $25k instead of $50-80K.

Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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That depends on what you call a 4WD, the $25K ones are road cars with
and extra bit of transmission and jacked up suspension. I wouldn't take
my Forrester seriously bush bashing, that's what Troopies are for and
they don't come at that price.


Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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Err, superroos come at a high price then that.
Bush bashing is what you do in old utes out shooting.
and the price of troopies illustrates my point exactly.
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Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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Hybrids are too expensive to compete unless the price of petrol goes way
above the present level, look at Europe and Japan where petrol is double
the Australian price, Europe is full of diesels and Japan is full of
small capacity petrol engined cars, Hybrids and electric vehicles have
made little inroads despite the high cost of petrol.

At the headquarters of my employer in the US, they use hybrid vehicles
as shuttles around the campus, but I think that it is more of a gesture
than a sound economic move.

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No reason (apart from cost) that cars of this class cannot be fitted
with a modern efficient auto gearbox. Modern engines warm up fast, the
ECU changes the mixture and timing to promote this, my Forrester (a not
particularly frugal car) is up to working temperature not much more than
500 metres after backing out of the drive.

I am not totally convinced by some of the technology used in this type
of vehicle. Stopping the engine when you come to a halt for instance is
fine when you stop at the traffic lights, but how does it hold up when
you are trying to turn right across heavy oncoming traffic?

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Another cost consideration with electric or hybrid vehicles is the
lifetime of the Lion batteries, they are very expensive, and, as any
laptop owner knows, their capacity diminishes with use. This is
exacerbated by high ambient temperatures such as we experience in
Australia.




Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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**Certainly. Hybrids and EVs are expensive, when compared to IC engined
cars. It may not always be the case. As production increases, then costs
may fall. Hence my example of the Model T Ford. Whilst Hybrids will
always be more expensive that IC only cars, there will ultimately be a
point reached where oil is so expensive, that hybrids may make sense.
Oil is a finite resource. It is also, far and away, the best, presently
available, energy storage system for automobiles.

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**Certainly.

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**I don't know the Forrester, but I've never seen an engine reach
operating temperature that quickly (in cool weather). I feel compelled
to doubt your claim. I would expect several km would be about right. The
Blue Motion engine would likely warm up faste, due to it's small block
mass.


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**Good point. Perhaps the indicator cancels the engine management in
this area? Those whacky Germans are pretty good at ensuring stupid
mistakes are not made when releasing new techology. Mostly.

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**Indeed. Nonetheless, given the rising cost of oil, research is likely
to continue. Hybrids, in their present form, may not represent the
answer to the problems. Standard IC engines are unlikely to represent
the future either.


--
Trevor Wilson www.rageaudio.com.au



Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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it's pretty amazing what can be done, an engine can be convinced to
produce significantly more heat (and less mechanical energy) merely by
delaying the spark by 15 degrees and opening the throttle a bit.

I discovered this by accident about 9 years ago.


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--
⚂⚃ 100% natural

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Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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**No doubt. I doubt that the many kg of block mass (and coolant) can be
heated up so rapidly though.


--
Trevor Wilson www.rageaudio.com.au



Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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there's a lot of power available.  But yeah, looking at google maps it took
about 2km to warm my engine up starting from about 15 degrees C,

--
⚂⚃ 100% natural

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Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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**Sounds about right. Probly an alloy block. An iron block will take a
good deal longer.

FWIW: Back when I was in tech, a mate bought a brand new 4 Litre
Cortina. As I recall, the 4 Litre Cortina was capable of around 100kW.
Tucked away in the handbook was a warning:

"Do not apply full throttle and full braking simultaneously for more
than 10 seconds."

Those words suggested that the auto gearbox could disspiate 100kW for 10
seconds. Not half bad!

--
Trevor Wilson www.rageaudio.com.au



Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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The Subaru having a flat 4 motor has 2 small aluminium blocks to heat.


Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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**Indeed. Which, when you think on it, should take a little longer than
a single block.



--
Trevor Wilson www.rageaudio.com.au



Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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It wouldn't be the gearbox dissipating that power (unless the bands
needed adjusting) it would be the torque converter.

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Having thought about it, no it shouldn't. I went out this morning, the
ambient temperature was 11 C, hot air started coming out of the heater
at about 0.4Km, the temperature was in the working zone just before
0.7Km. Car manufacturers have been using the ECU setting to promote fast
warm up for some years in order to meet pollution requirements.



Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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**Thanks for doing the test. That is certainly a little quicker than
vehicles I have experience with. I've never driven a Subaru from cold. I
still reckon the Subaru should take a little longer, due to the greater
total block mass (required for strength) and greater surface area.

--
Trevor Wilson www.rageaudio.com.au



Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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yeah it should, the pair has two more bolts, and two more ends than a single
four-pot block would...

--
⚂⚃ 100% natural

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