What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power? - Page 11

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Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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Right, but if you could afford to pay 3-5 years power bill upfront
you can make substantial savings by investing on top of your roof!

It's like going from Perfect Competition to Monopoly where there is
a greater barrier to entry for greater (partly free) sustained
benefit.

It's like incandescent bulbs, they should just tax the hell out of
them
not ban them.  $3 flouro bulb, $10 incandescent.

People making over $50K per year should be paying double for grid
power!

And the people who can afford extra solar panels have an option to
trickle in actual profits with the grid feed system.

It's a potential small business to invest your capital in..
.. that's if the power companies every paid you for

solar credits > your electricity usage.

Herc

Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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If the consequence of your doing that is only that the price of grid
power rises, but without any reduction in CO2 emissions, then all you've
achieved is to transfer some of your power costs to other people. It's a
form of economic parasitism.

Sylvia.

Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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You should know!  but your theory is utterly absurd.

It relies on 2 dubious premises.

Dubious Premise 1:  A varying load on the Power Station can be cheaply
accomplished with a less efficient generation method.

Dubious Premise 2:  The Govt. will willingly save a few bucks at the
expense of burning more coal to generate less power.

It's akin to not using pimple cream incase it causes more pimples by
being attracted to girls and catching herpes.

Herc

Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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More cheaply. I've explained how this comes about. If it weren't for
that mechanism, all our power would be generated by coal, rather than
just the base load.

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Appears to be entirely irrelevant.

Sylvia.

Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?

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In theory. In practise it is different.
I pay a package rate for electricity,with an offpeak hotwater heavy
discount.

If I put PV on my roof(not fully suitable), I instantly move to time of
day metering on all electricity usage, but have no capacity to time
shift any consumption.


Now, if I put stuff on my roof for my use only, I need a storage system.
The only practical economical storage system is deep discharge lead acid
batteries(Not gel or agm, or Nicad, or Lipoly, etc).

It costs about $300 to regulate up to 20amps and about $800 to regulate
up to 200(?)amps going into the battery bank. That is based on a 12v
battery bank.

IME gear for higher voltages is proportionally higher in cost

Probably $10/metre for cabling/copper bars. Hint, higher currents need
anchored cables/bars.

Now, your battery bank will beed to be somewhere from 200ampHrs to
4,000AmpHrs.  I use the C/20 for minimal charge/discharge rates for
longest battery life(idealy 10+ years/>3,653 cycles)

So I'll suggest $500 for 200Amphrs @12V. you can work out capital cost, etc.

At something like 200amps feed, you will probably be doing a water level
check weekly and consuming 20L of distilled water each time.
Better cost in a new set of clothes every three months because no matter
how careful you are, there is always acid holes.

You can work out your own inverters.

Now,if you want relability,then you need "generators". Plural in case
one breaks down. You also need to keep sufficent fuel to run them for
24, 48, etc up to say the occassinal week(make the neighbours really
happy there). You also need the battery chargers to convert generator
output into the battery.

Bottom line, it isn't simple and easy.




Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
On 7/9/2012 6:41 PM, Sylvia Else wrote:> On 9/07/2012 2:55 PM, Trevor
 >>>>>>> Opinions on this vary, but it appears that sometime in the next ten
 >>>>>>> years, domestic solar power will have an unsubsidised cost that is
 >>>>>>> below
 >>>>>>> the daytime domestic grid tarrif.
 >>>>>>>
 >>>>>>> I need to be clear here what I mean by "unsubsidised". I mean that
 >>>>>>> the
 >>>>>>> equipment can be bought and installed without a contribution from
 >>>>>>> either
 >>>>>>> the government or the suppliers(s) of electricity. I'm also
assuming
 >>>>>>> that customers will be able to net off their daytime electricity
 >>>>>>> consumption by selling their surplus solar power to the utility at
 >>>>>>> the
 >>>>>>> same price as they'd buy it at that time of day.
 >>>>>>>
 >>>>>>> There are arguments about whether such a framework is really
 >>>>>>> unsubsidised, but that's the definition I'm using here.
 >>>>>>>
 >>>>>>> The subject is "what happens when...?"
 >>>>>>>
 >>>>>>> At that point, rational consumers will install solar power systems.
 >>>>>>> Further, for those that cannot raise the capital, I would envisage
 >>>>>>> business moving in to install and lease the equipment to the
 >>>>>>> consumer,
 >>>>>>> because it will be possible to let the consumer have
electricity for
 >>>>>>> less than the grid price while providing a profit to the lessor.
 >>>>>>>
 >>>>>>> So there should be solar panels on every domestic roof that
receives
 >>>>>>> enough sunlight. The grid will only be supplying electrity during
 >>>>>>> the
 >>>>>>> day when the sky is overcast. This affects the economics of the
 >>>>>>> power
 >>>>>>> plant. In particular, I would anticipate a move away from combined
 >>>>>>> cycle
 >>>>>>> (CCGT) natural gas generation to the less capital intensive, and
 >>>>>>> less
 >>>>>>> energy efficient, generation plant.
 >>>>>>>
 >>>>>>> That less efficient plant will produce more CO2 per kWh than the
 >>>>>>> plant
 >>>>>>> that it replaces, but will produce less energy overall (since the
 >>>>>>> solar
 >>>>>>> panels are producing some). I have to wonder how that pans out. Is
 >>>>>>> the
 >>>>>>> CO2 purportedly saved by having the solar panels actually simply
 >>>>>>> tranferred to the outputs of the less efficient generators?
 >>>>>>>
 >>>>>>> The cost of this less efficiently generated power is higher than
 >>>>>>> that
 >>>>>>> produced by CCGT. Since that higher cost must be passed on to
 >>>>>>> consumers,
 >>>>>>> it means that the unit cost of grid power during the day will
go up,
 >>>>>>> thus further pushing the installation of solar panels.
 >>>>>>>
 >>>>>>> Of course, that's based on unsubsidised solar panels with a simple
 >>>>>>> net-off of consumption. For some bizarre reason, governments still
 >>>>>>> want
 >>>>>>> to help create the problem earlier than it would otherwise occur by
 >>>>>>> subsidising installation, and forcing retailers to pay more for
 >>>>>>> solar
 >>>>>>> generated power than it's worth to the retailer.
 >>>>>>>
 >>>>>>> I'm left wondering whether solar power is a mirage. Is it providing
 >>>>>>> any
 >>>>>>> benefit whatsoever? Or is it a complete and utter waste of money,
 >>>>>>> regardless of whether CO2 emissions are a problem?
 >>>>>>>
 >>>>>>> Sylvia.
 >>>>>>>
 >>>>>>
 >>>>>>
 >>>>>> **Thinking outside the box over the weekend. Let's say you plonk a
 >>>>>> dirty
 >>>>>> great PV array on your roof in a year or two. Then you buy
yourself a
 >>>>>> Holden Volt. During the day, you plug your Volt into the power
 >>>>>> supplied
 >>>>>> by the PV array. Given the fact that you are (in theory) a typical
 >>>>>> Australian driver, your driving is limited to around 40km/day. That
 >>>>>> suggests you will never use anything but renewable energy to power
 >>>>>> your
 >>>>>> car. That would result in a useful reduction in CO2 emissions. If
 >>>>>> several million car owners did the same thing, the results would be
 >>>>>> significant.
 >>>>>>
 >>>>>
 >>>>> It's the same problem. There will be days on which the sun doesn't
 >>>>> shine, and you'll then charge your Volt off the grid, which has to
 >>>>> have
 >>>>> generation capacity in place to allow for that. If everyone charged
 >>>>> their Volts off the grid every day, then more efficient generation
 >>>>> capacity would be used than for the situation where Volts are only
 >>>>> charged off grid when the sun isn't shining.
 >>>>>
 >>>>> Sylvia.
 >>>>>
 >>>>
 >>>> **Let's review the facts:
 >>>>
 >>>> * Not ALL cars are used every day to drive 40km. In my case, a 40km
 >>>> range would last me almost a week.
 >>>> * I suggested (but did not explicitly state) that the PV array
would be
 >>>> dedicated to charge the battery of the Volt (though it could be
another
 >>>> electric car).
 >>>>
 >>>
 >>> I still don't see that changes anything unless you are willing to forgo
 >>> the use of your car when you've used up the charge, or run it on its
 >>> petrol engine.
 >>
 >> **Your initial comments (correctly) centred on the ramifications of
 >> using PV cells and their usefulness WRT grid connected power. My
 >> suggestion was to not bother with connecting the PV cells to the grid at
 >> all, but to, instead, use the PV cells to keep an electric vehicle
 >> charged. This would have several benefits:
 >>
 >> * Reduce CO2 emissions from the vehicle.
 >> * Have no impact on the grid.
 >> * Reduce demands on the grid.
 >>
 >>>
 >>> You might be willing, but if so I can't see most people being like you.
 >>> Most will charge it from the grid if there's no sunlight, and that
 >>> causes the problem discussed in this thread.
 >>>
 >>> Sylvia.
 >>>
 >>
 >> **No one suggested that PV cells were a panacea, but there are other
 >> ways to skin a cat.
 >>
 >>
 >
 > One needs to take a pragmatic view. Some people may be willing to adjust
 > their lives to address CO2 emissions, but most people will simply follow
 > the path of least financial resistance.

**When fuel hits 5 Bucks a Litre, you will likely see a lot of
innovative ideas.

 >
 > The Government needs to ensure that that path doesn't represent an
 > increase in total cost without a commensurate environmental gain. As
 > things stand, that's very much in doubt.

**Regardless, we are facing a number of issues that threaten our present
lifestyle. These are:

* Dwindling supplies of cheap oil.
* Increasing demand for oil.
* An increasing need to deal with CO2 emissions.

None of the solutions will be without cost. Intelligent thinking can
reduce those costs.

You made the point that PV cells were not a nett benefit for the grid. I
accept that POV as valid. Given the cost reductions of PV cells, the
rise in prices of fossil fuels (both supply related and taxation
related), then alternative forms of personal transport will likely be
more common. Electric vehicles are ONE, viable form of personal
transport. Marry PV cells and electric vehicles and several problems can
be dealt with efficiently.


--
Trevor Wilson www.rageaudio.com.au




Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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Innovation doesn't go forever.  What's changed since 1990?

iPhones?  MP3 players?  cheap video projectors?

The Space Shuttle uses the same rocket fuel as the V2!

Batteries are already in mass production with a lot of research for a
long time.

There's a few more quantum leaps in innovation left in the next
century, but I doubt near perfect high power compact and cheap
batteries will be one.

Electric systems have their place, but we'd all be driving around
bumper cars before we dismiss the Internal combustions engine.

100KW to power a car, that's 50 air conditioners.   You can barely run
1 air conditioner with a $100,000 half tonne solar setup.

Herc

Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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Especially once big oil finishes raping the rest of the oil20%
producing countries, Iran etc, they will have monopoly
world wide - which you pay for by providing the tax to pay
the armies to steal the resources.  - orchestrated by the same
people that brought you the carbon dioxide scam.

Once that happens, selective supply, fake shortages, ie total20%
control will be the go, and you will pay big time for oil.


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Even if there was once perceived to be a need to deal with these
harmless "emissions", its decreasing, not increasing, thanks to an
increasingly awake and aware public.


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And that will never come from a government, paid off scientists, or20%
environmentalists, so for a start take all the above out of the20%
equation, or things will just get worse

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On Tuesday, July 10, 2012 6:58:13 AM UTC+10, Trevor Wilson wrote:
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Likely see a revolution, or if that doesn't happen, or fails, a certainty w=
ill be us living in 3rd world lifestyle.



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More like faked shortages to push the price up.  Once the big oil monopoly =
on oil is complete (thanks to fake corporate wars in the middle east - that=
 the public is forced to pay for), you will see massive price rises, and ot=
her nasties. It will not be from oil shortages though.

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Now that we have an awake and educated public who sees through this scam
this is anything but "increasing" and it is about as much of a "need" (exce=
pt for bankster profit)to the public as a hole in the head.



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You will NEVER find this from government bodies, politicians, paid off scie=
ntists, big business or anyone involved or even sympathetic to the "greenie=
" movement.

Common sense thinking, you wont find that in any of these places either
basically what you are saying is "we are stuffed"



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Until you can get a battery supply that can be "refilled" as fast as curren=
t fuel, (including at the roadside, if the battery runs out), can go a simi=
lar distance with a  similar vehicle weight and carrying capacity as curren=
t fuels, last as long as current engine technologies before needing battery=
 replacements, and cost similar amount, as well as lower or similar running=
 costs, you are well and truly in dream world.

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Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?

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fuel, (including at the roadside, if the battery runs out),

"Better Place" has solved the former
<http://www.betterplace.com/the-solution-switch-stations and, once
battery swap stations are as common as petrol stations, there is no
reason why roadside assist vans cannot carry a battery, or charge
yours, so that you could get to the nearest one.

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as current fuels,

That is not a universal requirement. The "Better Place" target market
is the urban dweller that needs a car to get to work but the electric
car could equally well appeal to those that use a second car for local
transport.
 
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We are there. How about 200,000 miles
<http://www.betterplace.com/the-solution-batteries ?

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Electric cars are simpler than carbon fueled cars and there is every
reason to suppose they will cost less once there is a mass market.

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The cost of electricity to power an engine is much cheaper than the
cost of petrol although that is partly because of fuel taxes. Have you
wondered why you can't plug a hybrid car into the mains without
voiding your warrantee?

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That's a nice place to be!

Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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The costs involved simply don't add up compared to a similar sized petrol o=
r diesel vehicle.

Unless something has changed dramatically, why would you buy a western made=
/designed vehicle, when for close to a generation Japanese product has run =
rings around them in just about every area including quality, longevity, pr=
ice, resale value, comfort and economy ?

Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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**Strawman. Further, as oil costs rise and becomes scarcer, other forms
of transport will be more viable. Electric vehicles are likely to fall
in price, once supply exceeds demand.

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**Personally, I wouldn't TOUCH a US built automobile (well, except for a
'64 Mustang, maybe). There would need to be a seriously convincing
argument to buy a European car as well. The Japanese and Koreans
(presently) have the market to themselves.

Either way, electric vehicles are likely to become ubiquitous in the
near future and the Volt, particularly, is an excellent design exercise.
It uses the strenghts of the electric motive system, along with an
intelligently utilised petrol engine. For my part, I expect we'll see a
lot of similar systems used in the near future, but with an even lower
emission, more efficient Diesel engine. Probably around 500 ~ 1,000cc in
capacity.


--
Trevor Wilson www.rageaudio.com.au



Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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  What a wonderful idea, get all the cars off the road, given that you
will be charging them at the time that most use them.

Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?

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Umm, what is the point of having the Volt?
Is this for people who are at home during the day?


Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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**You would need to ask the people who the Volt that question. For many
owners, no petrol will be required, except under unusual circumstances.

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**I merely supplied a scenario where the Volt could be charged, with no
extra burdens placed on the grid and at no cost to the owners. Many
vehicles are garaged during the day and used to (say) drop the (lazy)
kids at school, do the shopping, etc.



--
Trevor Wilson www.rageaudio.com.au



Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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With the Volt going to cost $60k plus the cost of the panels, the
economics are highly suspect.



Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?

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Yep, these cars are sold at status symbols.

Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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Though it's far from clear which status is being symbolised.

Sylvia.

Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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Every time I see a Prius, it is being driven like fury obviously not
being driven in a green manner. If you really want to save fuel and cut
emissions, buy a VW "Blue Motion" diesel Golf


Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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Put 98 Octane Unleaded in small cars and they are twice as quick!  U
turn in the middle of the road, park at high speeds!  Great cars if
only for 1.

Herc

Re: What happens when solar power is cheaper than grid power?
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Nothing like twice as quick.



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